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Today’s Summary
Thursday, February 25th, 2021
Indices: US Stocks closed lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.75%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 2.45% and 3.52%, respectively. The Russell 2000 underperformed, tumbling 3.69%.
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower. Utilities led, but still fell 0.90%. Consumer Discretionary lagged, dropping 3.72%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose 0.40% to a new 52-week high of $63.47 per barrel. Gold dropped 1.60% to $1,769 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat.
Interest Rates: The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 1.525%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
$TNX 10-year US Treasury yield moving forward above a significant level ? pic.twitter.com/WGXgpBsM5q
— Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts) February 25, 2021
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Alfonso Depablos (@AlfCharts). It’s a chart of the US 10-year Treasury yield ETF, $TNX, over the past decade. Interest rates continue to rip higher. On Monday, we discussed that the 10-year yield was testing an important long-term resistance level around 1.35%-1.45%. We broke above that level in a big way today with the 10-year yield currently at 1.52%. In a comment to The Chart Report, Alfonso said, “This was a solid resistance level, but the market has spoken, and yields are clearly resolving higher. We’re now firmly above 1.40% and momentum is in a bullish regime. I think we’ll likely see the 10-year yield continue higher towards that 2% level. We’re starting to see the impact of higher interest rates in the equity market, with Growth stocks getting hit and Value stocks finally catching a bid. If rates continue higher, it would provide a nice tailwind to Value relative to Growth.”
Quote of the Day
“I believe in analysis and not forecasting.”
– Nicolas Darvas
Top Links
The Stock Market Is Smarter Than All of Us – A Wealth of Common Sense
Here’s a good read from Ben Carlson in which he explains how the stock market often prices things in before they’re apparent to the public.
Sentiment Getting Frothy – LPL Financial Research
The team at LPL Financial Research weighs-in on sentiment.
Large Cap Tech Drifts Lower – StockCharts
Greg Schnell takes a look at the recent weakness in Large-Cap Tech stocks.
Ed Clissold Examines Growth Vs. Value Trends – TD Ameritrade Network
In this clip, Ed Clissold offers his thoughts on the recent rotation from Growth to Value.
Recent Typical March Trading: Strength Early and After Mid-March – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch examines how stocks have historically performed in March.
Top Tweets
Nothing was safe today pretty much $SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/ukDcT7UjqI
— Rolando Santos (@TKPTrader) February 25, 2021
$QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF breaks 20/50 day MAs and testing Tuesday lows… #IBDPartner pic.twitter.com/6pRTJStfq2
— See It Market (@seeitmarket) February 25, 2021
21-ema has been significant for $QQQ pic.twitter.com/pfsxbMYXFk
— Frank Zorrilla (@ZorTrades) February 25, 2021
From a technical standpoint, it’s worth noting that while the S&P500 index is marginally above its 50-day MA, the equal-weight S&P500 index looks more constructive, still holding above its 21-day EMA or a near-term technical inflection point $SPX pic.twitter.com/1YruaMcLEe
— Michael McKerr (@MikeMcKerr_TDA) February 25, 2021
Sentiment was extremely high for a long time, then dipped recently.
NASDAQ Daily Sentiment Index fell below 60 for the first time in more than 3 months.
Historically, long streaks of elevated sentiment always led to more gains for the NASDAQ over the next 3 months. pic.twitter.com/tGNbD4j3l8
— Troy Bombardia (@bullmarketsco) February 25, 2021
Financial to Technology breaks out $XLF $XLK pic.twitter.com/ba6wUaeP5r
— Bhagyashree Urdhwareshe, CMT (@sunsofttech) February 25, 2021
New 52-week high for the US 10-Year Yield $TNX
Is the 5-Year next? $FVX pic.twitter.com/YrbCkuj0m8
— Steven Strazza (@sstrazza) February 25, 2021
Going back to the late 90's we just saw the sharpest upside ROC for thee 10-year yield. pic.twitter.com/xzUD9rWj3v
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) February 25, 2021
10y yield back above S&P dividend yield pic.twitter.com/NiNeo6TODI
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 25, 2021
Lot's of focus on every 5-10bps move in the 10-yr T-Note. Think the discussion doesn't even get interesting until we get above 2.0% and maybe not until closer to 2.6%. pic.twitter.com/vpdtYORZYY
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) February 25, 2021
I can't help but think this is quite an important chart. $AMZN pic.twitter.com/RqciRusCzS
— Sam McCallum (@honeystocks1) February 25, 2021
Potential breakdown in $FB stock
After multiple failed at the descending trend line $FB may be headed lower if it fails to hold the base of the triangle pic.twitter.com/pUzrDI53cT— Arold (@aroldbelia) February 25, 2021
Deutsche Bank surveyed a bunch of retail investors… and look at the different in sentiment between 24-34 year olds and 55+ year olds! pic.twitter.com/ipYxusdmX9
— Dani Burger (@daniburgz) February 25, 2021