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Today’s Summary
Thursday, February 20th, 2020
Indices: US stocks closed lower in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 128 points or 0.44%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.38% and 0.67%, respectively. The Russell 2000 was the strongest of the major indices, rising 0.21%.
Sectors: Real Estate led, gaining 1.12%. Technology lagged, falling 1.04%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures were flat and continue to trade at $53.73 per barrel. Gold futures moved higher by 0.48% to $1,622 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained 0.29%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield moved lower to 1.515%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
10 – Year Treasury Notes $TYSPOT #TYSPOT pic.twitter.com/EGLL2n9fv7
— Bhagyashree (@sunsofttech) February 20, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by Bhagyashree (@sunsofttech). It’s a chart of the US 10-year Treasury Note, since 2016. As you can see, the 10-year Note is currently testing a critical resistance level. It’s also coiled into a pennant pattern over the past few weeks, which suggests a strong move in either direction is imminent. The yield on the 10-year Note is already near a record low at 1.515%. If the 10-year Note resolves higher and breaks through this resistance level, it will likely send the yield on the 10-year to fresh all-time lows. A few years ago, market participants mocked the idea that the United States would ever enter a negative interest rate environment along with countries like Japan and Germany. However, as the 10-year Note continues to trend higher, the probability of negative interest rates in the US is becoming more and more likely.
Quote of the Day
“If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.”
– George S. Patton (US Army General)
Top Links
SPX’s 6-month Run Could Mean More Upside for Stocks – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
The S&P 500 is currently up about 18% in the past six months. In this article, the team at Schaeffer’s Investment Research takes a look at how the index tends to perform in the weeks/months following a gain of this magnitude.
Sentiment Stable – Bespoke
Here’s a note from Bespoke that breaks down the results of this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey.
Follow Up on Prior Themes and Sector Confirmation – Next Level Charting
In this video, Arthur Hill examines some of the most noteworthy technical developments in the market right now.
King Dollar Going To Lose Strength Here? Gold & Silver Hope So!!! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the Euro and the US Dollar are both testing key levels. He also discusses how these two currencies could impact precious metals.
What Lumber’s Hinting About Highs in Homebuilders – All Star Charts
Steve Strazza explains what a breakout in Lumber futures could mean for Home Building stocks.
Top 10 Tweets
despite being down, it's definitely not a "sea of red" type day pic.twitter.com/HcfiROc7Wg
— BostonCharts (@bostonchaahhts) February 20, 2020
Dec 2018 looks like a cyclical low, meaning we are only a year or so into the current bull market. Mythbusting courtesy of @Todd_Sohn via yesterday's @CMTAssociation webinar. pic.twitter.com/5ySOPpHjzw
— Willie Delwiche (@WillieDelwiche) February 20, 2020
I've talked about Growth vs Value very stretched…
also in $IWM vs $QQQ – which you are starting to see a little reversion to mean playing out pic.twitter.com/1MjFD0WmHv
— Christian Fromhertz (@cfromhertz) February 20, 2020
Equal weight $SPX ETF $RSP continues to nosedive vs. $SPY YTD pic.twitter.com/5Qgs88DcuO
— Drew Wells, CIMA® (@DrewTheCharts) February 20, 2020
$SPX vs. $VEU (world ex-US) has gotten extreme. It's happened before: pic.twitter.com/Kn3QK5t0SL
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) February 20, 2020
Gold continues to follow the early 2019 playbook with a bearish divergence that becomes invalidated with a break to new highs. Constructive long-term chart.$GLD $GOLD pic.twitter.com/Dx6coWWZNR
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) February 20, 2020
$silver / $gold -ratio against the pring inflation index (200 week moving average).
If history is any guide, the coming months favor silver over gold, as the pring basket (assets sensitive to inflation) already turned upward. pic.twitter.com/lMtXyxf8tH
— Adrian (@highlevelTrader) February 20, 2020
$CL_F Crude Oil pic.twitter.com/C2SanZFaRx
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) February 20, 2020
Come on Domino's Pizza $DPZ Have not the global macro perma-bears informed you that stocks are not allowed to advance 20% in a single day? pic.twitter.com/pcWVYvdjid
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) February 21, 2020
If you paid five times Amazon's peak tech bubble price, and held on to today, you still would have beaten the S&P 500. (The log scale distorts it but that '00-'01 drop is -95%.) pic.twitter.com/k9Pi90fXdu
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) February 20, 2020