Friday, February 14th, 2020
Indices: US stocks were mixed in today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 25 points or just 0.09%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved slightly higher by 0.18% and 0.20%, respectively. The Russell 2000 was the weakest of the major indices, falling 0.36%.
Sectors: Real Estate led, gaining 1.16%. Energy lagged, falling 0.53%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures moved higher by 1.92% to $52.51 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.50% to $1,587 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched up 0.09%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield moved lower to 1.588%.
**The stock market and the bond market will both be closed on Monday, February 17th in observance of Presidents’ Day**
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
— Cousin_Vinny (@Couzin_Vinny) February 14, 2020
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared on Twitter by @Couzin_Vinny. It’s a weekly candlestick chart of WTI Crude Oil futures over the past ~3 years. Things are finally starting to look bullish for Crude Oil after having a rough start to the year. The commodity closed lower for five consecutive weeks, dropping over 20% in that time. As you can see from the blue horizontal lines, it has been stuck in a well-defined range between $65 and $50 per barrel for over a year. Price looked like it was going to continue lower after it broke below the bottom end of that range last week. However, price moved back above that key $50 level this week, forming a failed breakdown. Failed breakdowns like this tend to lead to sharp moves higher. As long as Crude Oil remains above that $50 level, the risk is to the upside. For more on this development, check out this article from Tom Bruni of All Star Charts.
Quote of the Day
“Some people feel the rain. Others just get wet.”
– Bob Dylan (Musician)
Raising Cash Now is Prudent – All Star Charts
JC Parets of All Star Charts made an appearance on BNN Bloomberg yesterday to explain why he’s been taking a more defensive approach to the stock market in recent weeks.
Trading After Presidents’ Day Weekend Still Weak – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch points out that the two days after Presidents’ Day weekend tend to be weak.
Equities Move Higher But High Beta Stocks Struggle to Outperform – Andrew Thrasher
Andrew Thrasher examines the bearish divergence that’s forming between the S&P 500 and High Beta stocks.
Weekend Stock Market Recap and Sector Analysis – The Trade Risk
In this video, Evan Medeiros reviews price action from this past week and takes a look at some important charts to keep an eye on next week.
5-Chart Friday (2/14/20) – Compound
Charlie Bilello highlights some of the most noteworthy charts from the past week.
Top 10 Tweets
The S&P has gone 117 days without a -5% pullback, and is currently more than 2 standard deviations above its 200 dma.
When this happened in the past (very strong momentum):
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) February 14, 2020
2 things to consider.
1.) The Global A/D line continues to make new highs
2.) The Global Dow has gone nowhere for more than 2 years
To repeat, global stocks have gone no where for two years. When you hear how things have gone too far too fast, point that out. pic.twitter.com/JadCE5QSCB
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) February 14, 2020
In just one week, we've gone from almost dead even bulls/bears in the @AAIISentiment survey to 15% more bulls than bears this week. Huge swing and speaks to relentless optimism!$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/akXpVqzWWn
— David Keller, CMT (@DKellerCMT) February 14, 2020
US Real Estate Trusts are up 28.8 times since 1988, outpacing US large caps, EU, Asian & EM equities on a total return basis.
— Tiho Brkan (@TihoBrkan) February 14, 2020
Nikkei still 41% below record of 30yrs ago (Dec89). Japan was >60% of MSCI EAFE in late-80s; it rose 20%/yr for 10yrs—an impossible contest for active managers. Ensuing $NKY collapse of 1989-99 had 89% of active managers beating EAFE. Something to ponder as FAANG runs its course. pic.twitter.com/P2uFX1dm0j
— The Leuthold Group (@LeutholdGroup) February 12, 2020
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) February 14, 2020
In U.S. 10-year Note futures, large speculators continue adding to their net short position while commercials add to net longs. Large specs are now net short nearly 400k futures. #ZN_F pic.twitter.com/9emTGtAXK8
— Michael McKerr (@MikeMcKerr_TDA) February 14, 2020
— Dana Lyons (@JLyonsFundMgmt) February 14, 2020
Record number of Robinhood users owning Virgin Galactic as the stock goes parabolic. We’ve seen this before (TLRY, BYND) pic.twitter.com/nW6nw97uEJ
— Hipster (@Hipster_Trader) February 14, 2020
— Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) February 14, 2020