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Today’s Summary
Friday, January 27th, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 +0.96% | Russell 2000 +0.44% | S&P 500 +0.25% | Dow +0.08%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Consumer Discretionary led, gaining +2.27%. Energy lagged, dropping -2.02%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -1.64% to $79.68 per barrel. Gold futures were flat and continue to trade at $1,929 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched higher to +0.10% to $101.92.
Crypto: Bitcoin inched higher by +0.32% $23,083. Ethereum inched lower by -0.21% to $1,598.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 3.505%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
A bullish slingshot?
When the S&P 500 is up >5% in January on the heels of a negative year, the future returns are quite impressive.
Only happened 5 other times, but higher for the full year each time and up nearly 30% on average.
Take note, S&P 500 up 6% in Jan currently. pic.twitter.com/z9a49adTUM
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 27, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Ryan Detrick (@RyanDetrick). With just two trading days left in January, the S&P 500 is up 6.02% for the month. Ryan points out that when January is up more than 5% after a down year like 2022, it has historically been a good omen for the year. The full-year returns have always been positive, with an impressive average gain of 29.7%. To be fair, this has only happened five other times so the sample size is small. But history tells us that a strong January has often been followed by further gains in the remainder of the year.
Quote of the Day
“One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.”
– William Feather
Top Links
Tech Bulls Eye Potentially Explosive Stock Market Pattern! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the equal-weight Nasdaq 100 has formed a bullish head & shoulders pattern.
February Better in Pre-Election Years – Almanac Trader
Seasonality expert, Jeff Hirsch looks at how stocks have historically performed in February of pre-election years.
History is Telling Us that 2023 Will Be Good For the US Stock Market – Riverbend Investment Management
John Rothe highlights some key technical developments to watch in the near term.
Is Uranium About to Go Nuclear – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines the outlook for Uranium.
Bad Gas – Bespoke
Bespoke takes a look at the crash in Natural Gas prices.
Trendlines over Headlines
The Latest Episode of Trendlines over Headlines is Out!
In this week’s episode, Katie Stockton joins us to break down the markets. Katie is the founder of Fairlead Strategies and the Portfolio Manager of the $TACK ETF. We discuss the S&P 500, the Communications Sector, Nat Gas, Gold, Bitcoin, and more!
You can also listen to the podcast version here.
Top Tweets
Wkly Mkt Mood: Risk-On
1. Stocks up >2%
2. $NDX +4.8% best week of 2023
3. Stocks absorb higher yields
4. Indexes stay above resistance
5. Volume decentNext week w/ Fed, ECB, ISM, NFP and $AAPL could be epic.
One thing is clear, stocks have traded very well into it.
— Abigail Doolittle (@TheChartress) January 27, 2023
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/hSBty0pPpq
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) January 27, 2023
The S&P 500 is making a run at resistance, but unlike the December failed test, momentum is confirming price this time. This sets up a potentially more constructive outlook. pic.twitter.com/pZDyE0sq1x
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) January 27, 2023
The S&P 500 is on pace to finish the month of January with trailing 4-month returns of 10% or more and trailing 12-month returns in negative territory.
Here's the precedent – and it's easily one of the most lopsidedly "bullish" tables i've ever posted. $spy pic.twitter.com/jKTxDpnLun
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) January 27, 2023
$SPX – K.I.S.S. Method
Momentum – RSI 50 serving as support and over 60.
Breadth – Leading price and over september highs.Will price follow suit? pic.twitter.com/YszoKaxdRc
— Larry Thompson (@HostileCharts) January 27, 2023
Worst 3-week stretch for Value vs Growth in at least 19 years pic.twitter.com/N2KG4nQURN
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) January 27, 2023
In other news, S&P 500 #Value Index is 2.9% away from an all-time high. pic.twitter.com/uLIMIz4EYr
— Elena Popina (@lena_popina) January 27, 2023
Looks like we are setting up for a Golden Cross (50 day MA crosses up through 200 day MA) in $SPY $SPX . Might hear that a lot soon so here's the numbers from @TrendSpider buying the Golden and selling the Death. Not too shabby. pic.twitter.com/Eo5XA7V1ud
— Gregory Krupinski (@G_krupins) January 27, 2023
Golden Cross for the EW Discretionary/Staples Ratio last week. Only the 12th since 2009. Improves upon six-month base rate median return for $SPX when they have occurred in the past. pic.twitter.com/lRwDR2cUEj
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) January 27, 2023
$EEM bullish 50/200-sma cross. pic.twitter.com/iDsy0lkmtt
— Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily (@LMT978) January 27, 2023
$UNG Weekly. Record weekly volume. 105M shares.
Strong downtrend, but could see a relief rally. No go. pic.twitter.com/UKe3DvdV4a
— Brian G (@alphacharts) January 27, 2023
$TSLA 174 November $TSLA 174 January pic.twitter.com/aGuWJYZrEi
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) January 27, 2023
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!