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Today’s Summary
Thursday, January 19th, 2023
Indices: S&P 500 -0.76% | Dow -0.76% | Russell 2000 -0.97% | Nasdaq 100 -1.00%
Sectors: 3 of the11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining +1.24%. Industrials lagged, dropping -2.06%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose +1.02% to $80.61 per barrel. Gold futures moved higher by +0.89% to $1,924 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index fell -0.35% to a seven-month low of $102.05.
Crypto: Bitcoin rose +1.91% to $21,064. Ethereum gained +2.51% to $1,550.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield inched higher to 3.393%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Taking profits at the 61.8% retracement continues to be a thing. $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/jj1AfyCgwV
— Jay R. Ligon (@TheeDisruptor) January 19, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Jay Ligon (@TheeDisruptor). This one is dedicated to all the Fibonacci skeptics out there. Jay points out that each major rally throughout this bear market has reversed at the 61.8% retracement of the preceding decline. The most recent rally was nearly 6%, but like the others, it rolled over after retracing 61.8% of the November-December decline. Nobody really knows why Fibonacci extensions and retracements often act as support or resistance, but this is clearly a pattern. It would be a bullish change of character to see the S&P 500 break this pattern, by reclaiming the 61.8% retracement of the November-December decline, around 4000.
Quote of the Day
“I enjoy the hunt much more than the ‘good life’ after the victory.”
– Carl Icahn
Top Links
Staying Classy: Market Breadth, Buying Thrust, and Brian Fantana – Carson Group
Ryan Detrick takes a look at the recent improvements in market breadth.
Bulls and Bears Almost Evenly Split – Bespoke
Bespoke breaks down the most recent AAII Sentiment Survey.
Netflix (NFLX) & Oil (OIH) Technical Trends – TD Ameritrade Network
In this clip, Frank Cappelleri shares his technical perspective on Netflix and the Oil Services ETF, $OIH.
Bond Investors Embrace Risk – All Star Charts
Ian Culley examines the outperformance in Emerging Market Bonds vs. US Bonds and what it could signal for the S&P 500.
Odds Favor Lower Bond Yields in Months Ahead! – Kimble Charting Solutions
Chris Kimble points out that the US 10-year yield ($TNX) is being rejected at a key Fibonacci retracement of the 1980-2020 decline.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/KoDVbTmeAw
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) January 19, 2023
The Bulls are High Conviction. The Bears are High Conviction. $SPX is same level as May 2022.
Q: Why do the bears only draw the downtrend line?
A: NarrativeTrend lines are subjective!!!! pic.twitter.com/8ug0oeK2ih
— Dan Russo, CMT (@DanRusso_CMT) January 19, 2023
S&P500 and rabbit math pic.twitter.com/ooDbv0ZYJk
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) January 19, 2023
#ES_F, 1d
It will get ugly below 3800. pic.twitter.com/JmXKB5H97N
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) January 19, 2023
S&P500 and rabbit math pic.twitter.com/ooDbv0ZYJk
— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) January 19, 2023
Looking at @NDR_Research's "Percent of NDR Multi-Cap Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Averages." We see upside participation broadening out, but once again, seems to have stalled at an important juncture. If this indicator moves above 61, we would view it as bullish confirmation. pic.twitter.com/eOKxROR5S4
— Day Hagan Asset Management (@DayHagan_Invest) January 19, 2023
People screaming breadth thrust across twitter helped the NAAIM number jump to the high end of the recent range. pic.twitter.com/KL7p2Rtm56
— ATMcharts (@ATMcharts) January 19, 2023
Prime example of why growth & value investing is not as simple as just buying indexes with G & V labels … Tech, a 'traditional' growth sector, is now 16.8% of S&P 500 Value Index, which is highest post-rebalance figure since index’s creation in 1994
@FT pic.twitter.com/LdCh4OUB0u— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 19, 2023
European stocks are off to their best start since at least 1987 – DB pic.twitter.com/fV3MC7mt2a
— Eric Wallerstein (@ericwallerstein) January 19, 2023
Throughout crypto winter, $ETH has held its bull market gains relative to $BTC. pic.twitter.com/GdzF77BCnZ
— Brian G (@alphacharts) January 19, 2023
Shit is so dumb it's hard to fully express. $JPM $USO pic.twitter.com/1kWjxjm1uD
— Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT? (@FusionptCapital) January 19, 2023
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!