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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, January 18th, 2023
Indices: Nasdaq 100 -1.27% | S&P 500 -1.56% | Russell 2000 -1.59% | Dow -1.81%
Sectors: All 11 sectors closed lower by more than -1%. Communications led but still fell -1.21%. Consumer Staples lagged, dropping -2.73%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -0.47% to $79.80 per barrel. Gold futures inched lower by -0.15% to $1,907 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat (+0.03%) and continues to trade at $102.40.
Crypto: Bitcoin fell -1.58% to $20,803. Ethereum dropped -2.27% to $1,530.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.372%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
The S&P looks like its near a technical crossroads, just below its 200-day moving average and downtrend line with a close and rising 50-day moving average. #spx pic.twitter.com/5u0tNbbHuM
— Nick Reece (@nicholastreece) January 18, 2023
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Nick Reece (@nicholastreece). The S&P 500 fell back below its 200-day moving average today, after being rejected at its downtrend line yet again. This infamous trendline has been tested several times in the past year, only to be rejected each time. The more times a trendline is touched, the more valid it becomes. In other words, each touch raises the significance of a potential breakout. Nick points out that price is currently at a crossroads, pinched between a declining 200-day moving average and a rising 50-day moving average. Buyers and sellers have battled their way to an important inflection point, so watch for a decisive resolution higher or lower in the near term.
Quote of the Day
“Think not of what you see, but what it took to produce what you see.”
– Benoit Mandelbrot
Top Links
After Bear Market January Indicator Trifecta Amazing – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch shows that when the January Indicator Trifecta is 3-for-3 after a bear market, the rest of the year has historically been strong.
Why Stocks Bottomed Last June – All Star Charts
JC Parets makes the argument that stocks actually bottomed eight months ago.
The Whole World is Watching – Trading Adventures
Andrew Moss points out that everyone is watching the same lines on the major indices.
Don’t Ignore These Bullish Signs – Who Charted? – Research by Potomac
In this quick video, Dan Russo and Drew Wells highlight six noteworthy charts in six minutes.
Top Tweets
Final heat map of the S&P 500's $SPY performance from today pic.twitter.com/JY7dN7ryow
— StockMKTNewz – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) January 18, 2023
#ES_F, 1d
Six rejections so far. pic.twitter.com/WV8T4HLf9w
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) January 18, 2023
The solution to recency bias:
A higher low. $SPX pic.twitter.com/JgMFL6BOFd
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) January 18, 2023
$XLP $XLU defensive sectors really getting hit today pic.twitter.com/Ek9kEXor5Z
— Matt Petrallia, CMT (@theEquilibrium) January 18, 2023
Lots of focus on the S&P 500 & it's 200-day average in recent days.
Over the past couple of decades, whether the average is rising or falling has mattered a lot more than whether the index is above or below it. pic.twitter.com/0CRNLmdSsV
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) January 18, 2023
$SPX has more proving to do from a trend-following perspective. pic.twitter.com/vCE2mOGtOW
— Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) January 18, 2023
Emerging markets have seen a big shift towards bullish momentum
Return from 2-year low has spiked from 0% to 20%
This has marked the beginning of some incredible runs pic.twitter.com/rQHsf3ucqr
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) January 18, 2023
USD/JPY has super strong support levels just underneath: the 50% Fib retracement @ 127 and the 2015 peak @ 126. And you thought it was finally safe to go outside… pic.twitter.com/3JGYezXahi
— Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA (@brettvillaume) January 18, 2023
Rates⬇️
Bonds⬆️$TNX $IEF pic.twitter.com/VFt6cGfjbs— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) January 18, 2023
$TLT , Mr. Bondman is at a key area of resistance and the 40-Week Moving Average. We shall see what information the market gives us. pic.twitter.com/Qq62SRUoGn
— Patrick Gushue (@blucollarcharts) January 18, 2023
TLT tests the 200-day MA as seasonality enters an unfavorable window. Seasonality is “climate, not weather” so no guarantees. But an important inflection point for t-bonds IMO. #sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/0c75KjGZ5v
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) January 18, 2023
$DBA in a downtrend and pressing 6-month support. Lower food prices coming? pic.twitter.com/ykoSq1HEH4
— Brian G (@alphacharts) January 18, 2023
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!