The Midterm Test ๐ The Daily Chart Report
Powered By:
Todayโs Summary
Friday, January 16, 2026
Indices: Russell 2000 +0.12% | S&P 500 -0.06% | Nasdaq -0.07% | Dow -0.17%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Real Estate led, gaining +1.22%. Communications lagged, dropping -0.89%.
Commodities: Crude Oil rose +0.36% to $59.29 per barrel. Gold fell -0.54% to $4,598 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index was flat (+0.03%) at $99.38.
Crypto: Bitcoin is currently flat (-0.11%) at $95,483. Ethereum is down -0.72% at $3,294.
Volatility: The Volatility Index rose +0.25% to 15.87.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.229%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
๐ Today's Chart of the Day was shared by Nautilus Research (@NautilusCap).
- The S&P 500 ($SPX) remains largely aligned with the 4-year election cycle as we begin the midterm year, historically the most challenging stretch of the cycle.
- Volatility tends to rise during the Q2 to Q3 window, with midterm years seeing an average intra-year drawdown of roughly -18%.
- While cycles are not signals on their own, they provide valuable context, particularly when market behavior begins to diverge from historical norms.
The Takeaway: The S&P 500 is entering the most volatile phase of the 4-year election cycle, and its ability to remain resilient during this period would be notably bullish.
Quote of the Day
โLife is a school of probability."
- Walter Bagehot
Top Links
A-D Line New High Limits Drawdowns - Chart In Focus
Tom McClellan details what new highs in the Advance/Decline line imply for market risk.
The Deck Is Stacked With StrengthโYet One Wildcard Remains - Trading Adventures
Andrew Moss examines the lack of participation from the marketโs largest stocks.
The BIG Question for SMALL Caps - CappThesis
Frank Cappelleri explores the sustainability of small-cap momentum.
The Great Rotation: Why "Physicality" is Crushing Digital in 2026 - Trading Trends
John Salama highlights the best and worst performing areas from this week.
These Are the Stocks to Buy In 2026 - The Compound
JC Parets joins Josh Brown and Michael Batnick to discuss where investors may find the most upside in 2026.