Sponsored By:
Today’s Summary
Monday, January 3rd, 2022
Indices: Dow +0.68% | S&P 500 +0.64% | Nasdaq +1.20% | Russell 2000 +1.21%
Sectors: 5 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led, gaining 3.10%. Materials lagged, falling 1.30%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures rose 1.16% to $76.08 per barrel. Gold futures dropped 1.56% to $1,800 per ounce.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index gained 0.58%.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped up to 1.631%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas being shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) and EquityClock.com. The chart shows the S&P 500’s average historical performance over the past 20-years. The S&P 500 followed its historical average quite closely in 2021, so we want to continue to pay attention to seasonality. Over the past 20-years, the S&P has historically started off strong in January, only to roll over mid-month and finish lower. In a comment, Frank explained, “The S&P 500 has advanced in January just 9 out of 20 years (45% of the time), with an average move of -0.3%. As you can see from the table on the right, there have been big moves in January in both directions over the last 20 years. The index logged a move less than +/-1% only one year: 2020.”
Quote of the Day
“You wanna fly, you got to give up the shit that weighs you down.”
-Toni Morrison
Top Links
A Theme: New All-Time Highs – All Star Charts
JC Parets highlights several key indices and sectors that are hitting all-time highs.
January Indicator Trifecta Crystalizes 2022 Outlook – Almanac Trader
Jeff Hirsch checks up on some of the January seasonality indicators.
2021 Was One of the Best Years in Stock Market History – A Wealth of Common Sense
Ben Carlson explains that 2021 was one of the best years for the S&P 500 when you take volatility into account.
Best & Worst ETFs of 2021 – Benzinga
Here are some of the best and worst-performing ETFs from last year.
The U.S. Stock Market in 2021: Best and Worst Performing Sectors
Here’s a great visualization of the strongest and weakest areas of the stock market in 2021.
Sponsored:
Top Tweets
https://twitter.com/LaMonicaBuzz/status/1478110577142734859
Just pretend this isnt the first trading day of the year, say it's any random month.
All of the following went out a new monthly ATH in Dec:$SPX$NDX$DJIA
that's just bullish regardless of the fact that its a new year.
— Michael Antonelli (@BullandBaird) January 3, 2022
When the stock market sets resolutions, it’s pretty good at keeping them ?
Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has risen in the first full week of the year, it’s had an 87% success rate of gaining for the full calendar year.
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) January 3, 2022
Does a solid first day of the year matter?
I'd say never ever invest a full year based on Day 1, but it is worth noting that January and full year returns are much better after a solid Day 1 return. pic.twitter.com/IbUmNLf9Kj
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) January 3, 2022
Here is the annual (log) chart of the $SPX with rate of change at the bottom. It was an impressive 27% advance in 2021 and a three-year charge of 90% pic.twitter.com/2MOIy5EfkH
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) January 3, 2022
Annual S&P 500 returns from worst to best since 1928. Last year's 28.7% (blue) was about one standard deviation above the average of 11.6%. No one knows where 2022 will fall, but we do know that the range of outcomes below is WIDE. pic.twitter.com/K7WktVCVRy
— Liz Young (@LizYoungStrat) January 3, 2022
It's interesting how closely the S&P in 2021 followed the historical average for the index.
If this trend holds true, expect to see some Q1 volatility – a mid-Jan dip extending to early-Feb.
Not sure why some people continue to discount the 'seasonality' factor… pic.twitter.com/T499Z7y4ok
— Michael Goodwell (@MichaelGoodwell) January 3, 2022
Semiconductors startin' off 2022 with a bang ↗️ $SMH +2.21% $SOXX +1.99% pic.twitter.com/500w52nnnx
— Grayson Roze (@GraysonRoze) January 3, 2022
Stocks vs Bonds back to new highs falls in the bullish bucket. pic.twitter.com/VToHlJxfdk
— Pratyush Tulsian (@PrattyCharts) January 3, 2022
hello! 2-year Treasury yields at the highest since March 2020 pic.twitter.com/OSDoPwrrWT
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) January 3, 2022
Looking more like the December breakdown in yield on the 30-yr was a head fake. 2's & 5's are making new highs today. pic.twitter.com/By1n31v7zF
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) January 3, 2022
$BTC vs. $TNX beginning to diverge. 10-year yields launching higher this morning amidst low demand for bonds. Does $BTC follow suit or will we start to see a widening gap between these two variables? Might need to see 10-yr yield break above 2021 highs for #Bitcoin continuation. pic.twitter.com/oO5nrIquE9
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) January 3, 2022
APPLE HAS OUTPERFORMED BITCOIN OVER THE LAST YEAR
(And with much less volatility).Apple's performance is just astounding.
It's much bigger than Bitcoin, and delivering higher returns, with smaller drawdowns, and smaller swings overall. https://t.co/1uNKnh9QKX pic.twitter.com/29wST7cYZc
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) January 3, 2022
$TSLA That's how you start the new year! ATH here we come? ? pic.twitter.com/uoneY7mEMa
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) January 3, 2022
Over the last two years, Tesla has had more one day moves of at least 10% (29) than bitcoin (17). $TSLA
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) January 3, 2022
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!